Money Cucumber

Traders are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting and a 50% chance of another cut in December. Chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month rose after disappointing services reading fueled fears that the economic slowdown would tip the U.S. into a recession. The tool is based on futures pricing from live markets and reflects the views of traders placing real bets on the CME exchange. The surge in futures prices lifted the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed at its two-day meeting on Oct. 29 and 30. It showed the likelihood of a cut had risen to 92.5% from 77% on Wednesday. The services sector grew at a considerably slower pace than expected in September with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index posting its the weakest reading since August 2016. The stock market sold off sharply on the data. The Fed, after raising rates nine times from 2015 through last Dece...

Alibaba has bought e-commerce business, Kaola, from NetEase for about $2 billion, adding a platform that specializes in supplying curated luxury goods from abroad to domestic consumers . Alibaba, which is looking for new revenue drivers as the e-commerce market at home matures, will also invest $700 million for a minority stake in Netease’s music streaming arm as it takes on Chinese market leader Tencent Music. The long-rumored Kaola deal and the music investment highlight at once a defensive move to keep niche growth players out of the hands of e-commerce rivals such as Pinduoduo and Alibaba’s flexibility in adopting new strategies . Kaola, launched by NetEase in 2015, aggressively targets shoppers in China by offering products from top brands such as Gucci, Shisheido and Burberry, primarily sourcing goods directly from suppliers to resell to consumers. Its more curated product line up based on popularity ensures it a loyal consumer base of shoppers, whereas Alibaba’s Tmall a...

Belfast International is the UK’s worst airport for 2019 , according to an annual survey by consumer group Which? Passengers passing through Northern Ireland’s busiest airport expressed frustration over long queues, crowds and poor shopping options. It received a customer approval rating of just 42%, scoring one star in the categories of seating, staffing and queuing at security. A spokeswoman for the airport acknowledged it had faced “significant operational challenges” in the last 18 months, but said passenger satisfaction levels were improving since a £1m upgrade to security facilities. She said the airport had made “considerable strides” to improve the passenger experience, including through enhanced” food and drink options in the new Northern Quarter facility. London  Luton (43%) came in second-to-last place in the Which? ranking after spending three consecutive years as the UK’s worst rated airport. Which? said customers criticised its limited seating and co...

Factories are slumping, many businesses are paralysed, global growth is sputtering and the world’s two mightiest economies are in the grip of a dangerous trade war. Barely a year after most of the world’s major countries were enjoying an unusual moment of shared prosperity, the global economy may be at risk of returning to the rut it tumbled into after the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Worse, solutions seem far from obvious. Central banks can’t just slash interest rates. Rates are already ultra-low. And even if they did, the central banks would risk robbing themselves of the ammunition they would need later to fight a recession. High government debts make it politically problematic to cut taxes or pour money into new bridges, roads, and other public works projects. “Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past,” said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have dow...

Be ready: the worst is yet to come. Financial markets are flashing a key warning sign of a recession, and the global economy is weakening as the U.S.-China trade war intensifies. All of which is heightening fear about the U.S. economy and about whether the Trump winning streak is nearing an end. On Wednesday, a rare realignment in interest rates intensified those worries. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly fell below the yield on the 2-year Treasury for the first time since 2007. Normally, investors earn higher interest on longer-term bonds than on short-term ones. Put another way, the government will usually pay more to investors who are willing to lend their money for longer periods. So when that equation reverses itself — when longer-­term Treasurys pay less than shorter-term ones — economists call it an “inverted yield curve.” An inverted curve suggests that bond investors expect growth to slow so much that the Federal Reserve will soon feel ...